The Hot Hand in Basketball: Analyzing Success and Failure Patterns
Author Information
Author(s): Yaari Gur, Eisenmann Shmuel
Primary Institution: Yale School of Medicine, Yale University
Hypothesis
Does a 'hot hand' phenomenon exist in sports, specifically in basketball free throws?
Conclusion
The study found evidence supporting the existence of the 'hot hand' phenomenon, suggesting that time fluctuations in success probability are a significant factor.
Supporting Evidence
- The study revisits the hot hand phenomenon using a larger data set than previous studies.
- Statistical traces of the hot hand were observed in individual player data.
- The findings suggest that perceived success may be influenced by time-dependent skill fluctuations.
Takeaway
When basketball players make a free throw, they might be more likely to make the next one if they just made the previous shot, but this could also be due to their overall skill level changing over time.
Methodology
The study analyzed all free throw sequences from five NBA seasons, using statistical tests to evaluate non-stationarity and conditional probability.
Potential Biases
Potential biases due to aggregation of data across players may skew results.
Limitations
The data set may not capture all factors influencing player performance, and the analysis is limited to free throw attempts.
Participant Demographics
Data included free throw attempts from various NBA players over five seasons.
Statistical Information
P-Value
p<0.05
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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