Modeling Pharmaceutical Demand in Italy
Author Information
Author(s): Giampiero Favato, Paolo Mariani, Roger W. Mills, Alessandro Capone, Matteo Pelagatti, Vasco Pieri, Alberico Marcobelli, Maria G. Trotta, Alberto Zucchi, Alberico L. Catapano
Primary Institution: School of Projects, Processes and Systems, Henley Management College
Hypothesis
The study aims to derive a weighted capitation model to account for demographic differences among general practices in Italy.
Conclusion
The ASSET model provides a useful framework for understanding and allocating prescribing resources, but it cannot fully explain the variations in individual prescribing costs.
Supporting Evidence
- Subjects over 65 years of age accounted for 56% of total prescribing costs.
- The ASSET model estimated 94% of total 2005 Italian prescribing costs.
- On average, costs for a 75-year-old subject would be 12 times the costs for a 25–34 year-old subject if male.
Takeaway
This study looks at how much medicine people in Italy need based on their age and gender, helping to make sure everyone gets the right amount of medicine.
Methodology
Data on individual prescription costs and demographics were collected from three Regional Health Authorities over a 12-month period.
Potential Biases
Idiosyncratic prescribing by general practitioners may lead to unfair distribution of resources.
Limitations
The ASSET model only explains about 25% of the variation in prescribing costs among individuals.
Participant Demographics
The sample included 3,175,691 Italian subjects with a distribution across various age and sex groups.
Statistical Information
P-Value
0.000
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Want to read the original?
Access the complete publication on the publisher's website