Modeling H. pylori Trends and Disease Progression
Author Information
Author(s): Marcia F.T. Rupnow, Ross D. Shachter, Douglas K. Owens, Julie Parsonnet
Primary Institution: Stanford University
Hypothesis
Can an analytical model estimate the future trends of H. pylori and associated diseases in the United States based on its natural history?
Conclusion
The model predicts that H. pylori prevalence and associated diseases will continue to decrease in the 21st century without intervention.
Supporting Evidence
- H. pylori incidence has been decreasing in successive generations in industrialized countries.
- The model predicts that H. pylori prevalence will decrease to 4.2% by 2100.
- Transmissibility of H. pylori has decreased to values so low that it may disappear from the population without intervention.
Takeaway
This study created a model to understand how H. pylori spreads and causes diseases, showing that its presence is decreasing in the U.S. over time.
Methodology
A dynamic compartmental model was used to simulate H. pylori transmission and disease progression based on age, infection status, and clinical state.
Limitations
The model did not account for demographic changes over time, which could affect disease statistics.
Participant Demographics
The model is based on the general U.S. population demographics from 1950.
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