Prevalence of Classical Scrapie in Sheep in Great Britain
Author Information
Author(s): Ángel Ortiz-Pelaez, Víctor J Del Río Vilas
Primary Institution: Centre for Epidemiology and Risk Analysis (CERA), Veterinary Laboratories Agency
Hypothesis
What is the within-holding prevalence of classical scrapie in sheep in Great Britain?
Conclusion
The overall predicted within-holding prevalence of classical scrapie in Great Britain is low at 0.65%.
Supporting Evidence
- The study tested 25,316 samples from 411 flocks.
- The predicted prevalence for the initial cull was 0.65%.
- There were no significant differences in prevalence between England, Scotland, and Wales.
- The study provides baseline data for future surveillance activities.
Takeaway
This study looked at how many sheep in Great Britain have a disease called scrapie, and found that only a small number are affected.
Methodology
Data from the Compulsory Scrapie Flocks Scheme was analyzed, including testing results from 25,316 samples across 411 flocks.
Potential Biases
Potential selection bias due to farmers applying for derogation from culling.
Limitations
The study may underestimate true prevalence due to selection bias and the assumption of perfect test sensitivity.
Participant Demographics
Samples were taken from sheep in 213 scrapie-affected holdings across England, Scotland, and Wales.
Statistical Information
P-Value
0.059
Confidence Interval
95% CI: 0.55–0.75
Statistical Significance
p=0.059
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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