Tracking the Evolution of HIV/AIDS in China from 1989–2009
Author Information
Author(s): Jia Zhongwei, Wang Lu, Chen Ray Y., Li Dongmin, Wang Lan, Qin Qianqian, Ding Zhengwei, Ding Guowei, Zang Chunpeng, Wang Ning
Primary Institution: National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, China CDC, Beijing, China
Hypothesis
To determine policy implications, this analysis tracks the evolution of HIV/AIDS infection across China to understand current trends and potential risk factors.
Conclusion
Rates of HIV/AIDS among permanent urban residents, particularly women and elderly men, have increased significantly in recent years.
Supporting Evidence
- From 2003 to 2009, HIV/AIDS cases increased 199% in high prevalence areas.
- By 2009, there was a 122% increase in HIV cases among rural residents.
- Sexual transmission of HIV increased by 504% from 2003 to 2009.
- Among those <65 years old, women increased more than men in HIV cases.
- Among elderly men (≥65), the increase in HIV cases was more than among elderly women.
Takeaway
This study shows that HIV/AIDS is spreading more among women and older men in cities, and it's important to pay attention to these groups to prevent further spread.
Methodology
A retrospective study with spatial analytical model and multilevel spatial models was conducted among 326,157 HIV/AIDS cases reported from 1989–2009.
Potential Biases
The study did not include the effect of treatment on the distribution and evolution of HIV/AIDS.
Limitations
The analysis is based on reported cases of HIV/AIDS across China and may not represent the actual spread.
Participant Demographics
30% were women, 49% were urban, and 43% were migrants.
Statistical Information
P-Value
<0.001
Confidence Interval
(0.287, 1.163)
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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