Improving Mortality Prediction in Older Adults
Author Information
Author(s): Luth Elizabeth, Bowles Kathryn, Brickner Carlin, Gao Oude, Rakotoarivelo Harivony
Primary Institution: Rutgers University
Hypothesis
Do functional ability measures improve the accuracy of a 12-month mortality prediction model?
Conclusion
Functional ability measures like physical therapy were linked to lower odds of death, while respiratory support was linked to higher odds.
Supporting Evidence
- Of the 6625 Medicare Advantage plan members, 186 (4.6%) died the following year.
- Having PT/OT was associated with 24% lower odds of death.
- Receiving respiratory support was associated with 45% higher odds of death.
- ADL support, feeding support, and skilled nursing were not associated with death.
Takeaway
This study looked at how different types of help for older adults can predict if they might die in the next year. Some types of help, like physical therapy, can actually lower the chances of dying.
Methodology
Multivariable logistic regression tested associations between five functional ability measures and death for Medicare Advantage plan members.
Limitations
Functional ability measures were not directly measured in claims data.
Participant Demographics
32% Black, 32% White, 9% Asian, 26% Other races; 37% Hispanic/Latino; 69% female; average age of 73.5 years.
Statistical Information
P-Value
p<0.001
Confidence Interval
95%CI: 0.62-0.85
Statistical Significance
p<0.001
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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