Modeling the Spread of the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic in Europe
Author Information
Author(s): Stefano Merler, Marco Ajelli, Andrea Pugliese, Neil M. Ferguson
Primary Institution: Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento Povo, Italy
Hypothesis
What factors contributed to the variation in the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic across Europe?
Conclusion
The study found that differences in school calendars, human mobility, and demographic structures largely explain the variation in the timing and spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Europe.
Supporting Evidence
- The model predicted a substantial summer wave in the UK, which was not observed in other European countries.
- Travel patterns from the US and Mexico significantly influenced the timing of the first cases in European countries.
- Demographic factors, such as household size and age distribution, correlated with the cumulative attack rate of the virus.
Takeaway
The 2009 H1N1 flu spread differently in Europe because of when schools were closed and how people traveled, especially from the US and Mexico.
Methodology
The study used an individual-based stochastic simulation model to analyze the spread of H1N1 in Europe, incorporating data on travel patterns and demographic structures.
Potential Biases
Potential biases in reported cases due to reliance on travel links for testing.
Limitations
The model may not fully capture commuter travel patterns and changes in contact behavior during school holidays.
Participant Demographics
The model accounted for demographic structures across different European countries.
Statistical Information
P-Value
p<0.001
Confidence Interval
95% CI: 1.43–1.54
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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