Hantavirus Incidences and Climate Change: The Role of Mast
Author Information
Author(s): Clement Jan, Vercauteren Jurgen, Verstraeten Willem W, Ducoffre Geneviève, Barrios José M, Vandamme Anne-Mieke, Maes Piet, Van Ranst Marc
Primary Institution: Hantavirus Reference Center, Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Department of Microbiology & Immunology, Rega Institute, Leuven, Belgium
Hypothesis
The ecological causal connection between hantavirus outbreaks and climate change is linked to the staple food source for voles, specifically the mast from deciduous broad-leaf trees.
Conclusion
Hantavirus peaks are linked to abundant mast formation and higher temperatures, suggesting that climate change may lead to more frequent outbreaks.
Supporting Evidence
- Each NE peak since 1993 was preceded by a mast year.
- NE peaks are significantly related to warmer autumns the year before.
- Hotter summers two years before are linked to increased NE cases.
- Colder and more moist summers three years before also correlate with NE peaks.
- NE cases have increased significantly since 2005.
Takeaway
When trees produce a lot of seeds, it helps the voles survive, which can lead to more people getting sick from hantavirus.
Methodology
The study analyzed NE cases from 1985 to 2007 and correlated them with climate data, focusing on temperature and precipitation.
Potential Biases
Potential biases may arise from underreporting of NE cases or variations in medical awareness over time.
Limitations
The study is limited by the availability of long-term epidemiological and climate data.
Participant Demographics
The study primarily involved NE cases in Belgium, with a focus on the local population.
Statistical Information
P-Value
0.034
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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