Dengue Emergence in Hanoi, Vietnam: 1998–2009
Author Information
Author(s): Cuong Hoang Quoc, Hien Nguyen Tran, Duong Tran Nhu, Phong Tran Vu, Cam Nguyen Nhat, Farrar Jeremy, Nam Vu Sinh, Thai Khoa T. D., Horby Peter
Primary Institution: Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Unit, Hanoi, Vietnam
Hypothesis
Is dengue emerging in Hanoi, Vietnam?
Conclusion
Dengue incidence has been increasing year on year in Hanoi since 1999.
Supporting Evidence
- Significant annual increase in dengue cases was identified after excluding major outbreak years.
- The average age of notified dengue cases is high, indicating a shift in demographics.
- Dengue transmission in Hanoi shows clear annual cycles associated with climate variables.
- 85% of notified cases occurred in individuals aged over 15 years.
Takeaway
Dengue is becoming more common in Hanoi, and we need to study why this is happening.
Methodology
Temporal and spatial analysis of dengue cases using quasi-Poisson regression and wavelet analysis.
Potential Biases
Potential for misclassification of dengue cases due to overlap with other febrile illnesses.
Limitations
The study relied on passively notified cases, which may underestimate true dengue infections.
Participant Demographics
Median age of notified cases was 23 years, with 53% male and 85% aged over 15 years.
Statistical Information
P-Value
0.002
Confidence Interval
1.20–1.58
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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