Quantifying the Emergence of Dengue in Hanoi, Vietnam: 1998–2009
2011

Dengue Emergence in Hanoi, Vietnam: 1998–2009

Sample size: 25983 publication 10 minutes Evidence: moderate

Author Information

Author(s): Cuong Hoang Quoc, Hien Nguyen Tran, Duong Tran Nhu, Phong Tran Vu, Cam Nguyen Nhat, Farrar Jeremy, Nam Vu Sinh, Thai Khoa T. D., Horby Peter

Primary Institution: Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Unit, Hanoi, Vietnam

Hypothesis

Is dengue emerging in Hanoi, Vietnam?

Conclusion

Dengue incidence has been increasing year on year in Hanoi since 1999.

Supporting Evidence

  • Significant annual increase in dengue cases was identified after excluding major outbreak years.
  • The average age of notified dengue cases is high, indicating a shift in demographics.
  • Dengue transmission in Hanoi shows clear annual cycles associated with climate variables.
  • 85% of notified cases occurred in individuals aged over 15 years.

Takeaway

Dengue is becoming more common in Hanoi, and we need to study why this is happening.

Methodology

Temporal and spatial analysis of dengue cases using quasi-Poisson regression and wavelet analysis.

Potential Biases

Potential for misclassification of dengue cases due to overlap with other febrile illnesses.

Limitations

The study relied on passively notified cases, which may underestimate true dengue infections.

Participant Demographics

Median age of notified cases was 23 years, with 53% male and 85% aged over 15 years.

Statistical Information

P-Value

0.002

Confidence Interval

1.20–1.58

Statistical Significance

p<0.05

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.1371/journal.pntd.0001322

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