Estimating Under-Five Mortality Rate Using a Bayesian Model
Author Information
Author(s): Leontine Alkema, Ann Wei Ling
Primary Institution: National University of Singapore
Hypothesis
Can a Bayesian hierarchical time series model provide more accurate estimates of under-five mortality rates compared to traditional methods?
Conclusion
The proposed Bayesian model offers smoother estimates of under-five mortality rates and better uncertainty assessments than traditional methods.
Supporting Evidence
- The Bayesian model provides credible bounds for under-five mortality rates that are well calibrated during the observation period.
- Cross-validation showed that the model's predictions were generally accurate.
- The model allows for the exchange of information between countries to improve estimates.
Takeaway
This study created a new way to estimate how many young children die in different countries, making the numbers more accurate and easier to understand.
Methodology
A Bayesian hierarchical time series model was used to estimate under-five mortality rates for 165 countries, allowing for smooth changes over time.
Potential Biases
Potential biases from incomplete vital registration systems were addressed by down-weighting or excluding biased observations.
Limitations
The model may underestimate rates of decline in countries with recent accelerations in mortality reduction.
Participant Demographics
Data from 165 countries were analyzed.
Statistical Information
Confidence Interval
95%
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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