Incidence of Symptomatic and Asymptomatic Leishmania donovani Infections in High-Endemic Foci in India and Nepal: A Prospective Study
2011

Leishmania Infections in India and Nepal

Sample size: 21267 publication 10 minutes Evidence: high

Author Information

Author(s): Ostyn Bart, Gidwani Kamlesh, Khanal Basudha, Picado Albert, Chappuis François, Singh Shri Prakash, Rijal Suman, Sundar Shyam, Boelaert Marleen

Primary Institution: Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium

Hypothesis

What is the relationship between L. donovani infection and clinical disease in high-endemic areas of India and Nepal?

Conclusion

Asymptomatic L. donovani infections are nine times more frequent than symptomatic VL disease, with about 1 in 50 latent infections leading to VL within 18 months.

Supporting Evidence

  • 42 VL cases and 375 asymptomatic seroconversions were recorded in the first year.
  • The infection:disease ratio was 8.9 to 1 in the first year.
  • 7 extra cases of VL were observed in the seroconverters group during the 18 months' follow-up.
  • 85% of asymptomatic seroconverters turned seronegative again within a year.
  • Recent seroconversion was a strong risk factor for developing VL.
  • The average incidence rate of VL over 30 months was 2.8/1000 PY.
  • Incidence of VL in year 2 was significantly lower than in year 1.

Takeaway

In places where Leishmania is common, many people get infected without getting sick, and some of these infections can turn into a serious illness later.

Methodology

The study followed 21,267 individuals in high-endemic villages over 30 months, using DAT seroconversion to assess infections and clinical follow-up for VL cases.

Potential Biases

Potential bias due to reliance on serological testing and the absence of other diagnostic methods.

Limitations

The study relied on a single serological test (DAT) and did not explore cellular immunity.

Participant Demographics

49.1% women; 17.0% under five years of age; 42.6% under fifteen.

Statistical Information

P-Value

p<0.0001

Confidence Interval

95% CI: 1.9–2.9

Statistical Significance

p<0.05

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.1371/journal.pntd.0001284

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