Early Detection of Malaria in Southern Zambia
Author Information
Author(s): Davis Ryan G, Kamanga Aniset, Castillo-Salgado Carlos, Chime Nnenna, Mharakurwa Sungano, Shiff Clive
Primary Institution: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Hypothesis
The study hypothesized that silent malaria reservoirs would be vulnerable to targeted control measures during periods of low transmission.
Conclusion
The study found that the inconsistent sensitivity of the zonal threshold levels undermines the reliability of the alert system for malaria detection.
Supporting Evidence
- The study found that 39% of weeks breaching alert levels were part of a series of three or more consecutive aberrant weeks.
- Comparing thresholds with historic weekly incidence values showed a range of aberrant weeks from 1.7% to 36.1% across different health centres.
- The alert system detected abnormal incidence four weeks before its peak in one case study.
Takeaway
The researchers created a system to quickly find and treat malaria cases in Zambia, which could help stop the disease from spreading.
Methodology
The study used weekly surveillance data from 13 rural health centres to create early warning thresholds based on Poisson distribution.
Potential Biases
There is a risk of aggregation bias due to grouping health centres with similar incidence patterns.
Limitations
The thresholds were more sensitive for some rural health centres than others, and the data collection had many gaps.
Participant Demographics
The study involved a total population of approximately 158,000 people served by the 13 rural health centres.
Statistical Information
P-Value
0.006
Confidence Interval
(1.63, 2.67)
Statistical Significance
p = 0.006
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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